Iran-U.S. Standoff: Historical Roots and Future Implications

The Iran-Israel War: A Geopolitical Analysis with Shireen Tahmaseeb Hunter

Two months after the Israeli attack on Iran, tension in the region persists, with no signs of a diplomatic solution on the horizon. To better understand the dynamics at play, Responsible Statecraft interviewed Dr. Shireen Tahmaseeb Hunter, one of the most authoritative voices in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs. A former Iranian diplomat under the Shah, Hunter then developed an academic career in the United States, becoming a reference point in the study of Iran's international relations.

Iran Among the Great Powers: A Buffer Role?

The conversation begins with a crucial question: has Iran ever truly overcome its historical role as a "strategic cushion" among the great powers? Hunter responds clearly: "None of the great powers have ever considered Iran essential to their interests. Britain never saw it as worthy of being colonized, and neither did the United States consider it an indispensable ally like Turkey or Saudi Arabia."

According to Hunter, the great powers have always sought to keep Iran weak and dependent. Even during the Shah's regime, the United States did not significantly contribute to the country's industrial modernization. "Ironically," she adds, "the first steel blast furnace in Iran was built by the Soviet Union."

This situation has created a general distrust of the great powers in Iranian politics, but also internal divisions between those who preferred to ally with Russia and those who preferred the West. Despite its declarations, the Islamic Republic has not definitively broken with this pattern. "There are still supporters of Russia in Iran and those who would like a more mature relationship with the West," Hunter states.

The Missed Opportunity for Moderate Dialogue

Hunter criticizes both the excesses of the Islamic Republic and the refusal of the United States to seriously engage with Iranian moderates. "After the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the United States refused to deal with moderates like Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who had offered a contract to an American oil company, Conoco."

Similar situations occurred with Presidents Khatami and Rouhani. "After 9/11, Iran had offered cooperation to the United States in Afghanistan, but Washington responded by including it in the Axis of Evil," Hunter recalls. "In 2003, Iran had sent a letter proposing to discuss all issues between the two countries, including that of Lebanese Hezbollah. These overtures were also rejected."

According to Hunter, if the United States had responded positively to these initiatives, Iranian moderates would have gained strength to better resist the extremists. "The American refusal has weakened the reformists and strengthened the hawks in Tehran," she concludes.

The Influence of the Israeli Lobby

The conversation then touches on the role of the Israeli lobby in the United States. Hunter observes that during the Clinton presidency, many supporters of Israel were appointed to key positions in American foreign policy. "Figures like Martin Indyk have had a significant influence," she states.

During the presidency of George W. Bush, pro-Israel neoconservatives pushed for aggressive policies, such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq, with the subsequent aim of attacking Iran. "Israel has always sought to use the power of the United States to eliminate its rivals," Hunter explains. "Now it's Iran's turn. Who knows who will be next."

The Threat of Iranian Fragmentation

Hunter then addresses the possibility that Israel seeks to turn Iran into a failed state, exploiting ethnic and sectarian tensions. "Those who have sought to weaken Iran have always exaggerated its ethnic and linguistic differences," she states. "However, if the United States continues to strike Iran or actively seeks to divide it into mini-states, Iran's territorial and political unity would be seriously threatened."

Hunter mentions in particular the efforts of Turkey and Azerbaijan to promote the secession of the so-called "Southern Azerbaijan," the northwestern region of Iran with a significant Turkish-speaking population. "Israel has cultivated close relations with Baku precisely to exploit these tensions," she states. "However, the U.S./Israel war has failed to spark any Azeri revolt against Tehran. The idea has proven fallacious."

The Role of Russia

Finally, Hunter discusses Russia's role in the region. "Moscow has actively worked against reconciliation between the United States and Iran," she states. "Russia sees a strong and independent Iran as a threat to its interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia."

The conversation with Shireen Tahmaseeb Hunter offers an in-depth look at the complex geopolitical dynamics characterizing the current situation between Iran and Israel. Her analyses highlight how past political choices have contributed to creating the current situation and how ethnic and sectarian tensions can be instrumentalized to further destabilize the region.