United States and Eritrea: a strategic rapprochement in the Red Sea

The United States is considering a diplomatic rapprochement with Eritrea, an African country isolated for years due to serious human rights violations. This unexpected move is motivated by the urgent need to ensure the security of the Red Sea, threatened by developments in the conflict between Iran and the United States.

The geopolitical context

The war between Iran and the United States has created an unprecedented economic crisis for Egypt, with estimated losses of 10 billion dollars in Suez Canal revenues due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea. In this scenario, Egypt has assumed a key role as a mediator between Washington and Asmara, the Eritrean capital.

The meeting between Massad Boulos, special envoy of President Donald Trump for Africa, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in Cairo has turned the spotlight on a possible diplomatic thaw. Although Boulos denied any discussion about Eritrea, the Eritrean embassy in Washington released a statement that does not deny the talks but defends the normalization of relations.

The motivations of Washington

For the United States, the sudden interest in Eritrea is dictated by strategic necessity. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Washington to seek new levers in the Red Sea. Although the Trump administration included Eritrea in its 2025 travel ban and made the protection of Christians a priority, the current crisis has pushed to consider unexpected alliances.

However, the fact that Egypt is the mediator of this rapprochement raises concerns. The normalization of relations between the United States and Eritrea could be perceived as an alignment with the Egypt-Eritrea axis, putting at risk relations with Ethiopia, a historic and strategic partner of the United States in the region.

The Egyptian ambitions

Egypt has built a complex architecture of pressure around Ethiopia, with the aim of countering the construction of dams on the Nile, considered an existential threat to Egyptian water security. Among the measures adopted are agreements to modernize the Eritrean ports of Doraleh and Assab, the deployment of troops in Somalia and support for the Sudanese Armed Forces in their civil war.

Through this rapprochement between Washington and Asmara, Egypt hopes to activate American diplomatic weight in its regional campaign against Ethiopia.

The implications for the region

The history between Ethiopia and Eritrea is marked by a bloody conflict between 1998 and 2000, followed by years of tension. A rapprochement between the United States and Eritrea could exacerbate tensions along the border between the two countries, where both are currently deploying troops.

Furthermore, the perceived alignment with the Egypt-Eritrea axis could damage the United States' relations with Ethiopia, the most populous and economically relevant nation in the Horn of Africa and home to the African Union.

While the United States seeks to address strategic challenges in the Red Sea, the rapprochement with Eritrea represents an opportunity, but also a risk. The move, although necessary, could have long-term implications for regional stability and relations with Ethiopia. The complexity of the context requires a balanced approach that takes into account regional sensitivities and broader geopolitical implications.