Iran and United States heading towards a ceasefire: Tehran's conditions

The negotiations to end the conflict between Iran and the United States are entering a crucial phase. Tehran shows a clear preference for a ceasefire that avoids further escalation, aware of the strategic, economic, and military costs of continuing the conflict. However, the Iranian regime is not willing to make concessions that could undermine the founding principles of the Islamic Republic.

Quick Answer

  • Iran seeks a ceasefire that avoids escalation, but without ideological concessions
  • The USA proposes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for economic incentives
  • Tehran insists on a ceasefire that also includes Israel in Lebanon
  • The Iranian regime demands immediate economic benefits as a necessary condition
  • Diplomacy is seen by Tehran as a continuation of military leverage through other means

The terms of the negotiation: reopening the Strait of Hormuz

During the weekend, US President Donald Trump discussed with regional leaders an agreement that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for some economic incentives for Iran. Subsequent negotiations should focus on the management of Iran's nuclear stockpiles. Despite the attacks defined as "self-defense" carried out by the USA in southern Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that an agreement could be finalized in a few days.

The Iranian perspective: security and immediate economic benefits

Tehran considers the current negotiating framework advantageous, allowing it to recover from war damages, obtain guarantees against future military actions, and defer concessions on the nuclear issue. The regime, however, maintains a high level of military readiness, not fully trusting the stability of the diplomatic process and fearing a sudden change of course by Trump.

Iran's non-negotiable conditions

Iran insists on two fundamental conditions: a ceasefire that also includes Israel in Lebanon, in line with its commitment to the so-called "Axis of Resistance" led by Hezbollah, and immediate economic relief. Without easing sanctions and tangible benefits, Tehran considers US requests coercive rather than diplomatic.

The nuclear issue: public resistance and possible private compromises

On the nuclear front, Iran does not show willingness to publicly compromise. However, there may already be informal agreements or assurances transmitted to Washington regarding temporary limitations. The regime calculates that, over time, the USA will find it increasingly difficult to resume military operations, with or without a definitive agreement.

Sanctions relief: a national priority

Easing sanctions is considered vital for Iran, whose economy has suffered heavily under years of pressure. The Iranian leadership recognizes that long-term domestic stability depends on economic recovery and reintegration into global markets.

Diplomacy as a continuation of military leverage

Tehran sees diplomacy not as an alternative to military force but as its continuation through political means. This approach allows the regime to transform military resilience into strategic gains while reducing the likelihood of further escalation. For Iran, ending the war without yielding on strategic issues represents the most favorable outcome possible.

The regional balance and the role of Hezbollah

A crucial aspect of the negotiations is the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a key ally of Iran. Tehran insists that any agreement include security guarantees for Hezbollah, considered an essential component of the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel. This aspect is particularly delicate for the United States, which sees Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and not as a legitimate actor in the peace process. The tension between these opposing perspectives could further complicate the negotiations.

The economic implications for Iran

The Iranian economy has taken a hard hit under sanctions, with a significant decline in GDP and an increase in unemployment. Easing sanctions is seen as a necessary step to stabilize the national currency and attract foreign investment. However, the international community is skeptical about Iran's ability to comply with any economic agreements, given the historical instability of its financial system.

The position of regional allies

Regional allies of the United States, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are closely watching the negotiations. These countries are concerned about Iran's growing influence in the region and fear that an agreement too favorable to Tehran could further alter the balance of power to their disadvantage. Recent conversations between President Trump and regional leaders suggest an attempt to balance the security concerns of allies with the need for de-escalation.

The internal challenges for the Iranian regime

Within Iran, divisions between reformists and conservatives could complicate the regime's negotiating position. Reformists, led by President Hassan Rouhani, are more inclined to seek an agreement with the United States, hoping for an improvement in economic conditions. Conservatives, however, are more skeptical and prefer to maintain a hard line, fearing that any concession could undermine the regime's stability. This internal tension could influence Tehran's ability to reach a lasting agreement.

Long-term prospects

Even if a ceasefire is reached, the long-term prospects for regional stability remain uncertain. Iran continues to develop its nuclear and missile programs, while the United States maintains a significant military presence in the region. The ability of both parties to comply with any agreements and build mutual trust will be crucial to avoiding future escalations. Additionally, the situation in Lebanon and Syria, where Iran has significant influence, could continue to be a point of tension.

The role of the international community

The international community, including the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, has a direct interest in the outcome of the negotiations. Russia, for example, has close ties with Iran and could act as a mediator. China, on the other hand, is an important economic partner of Tehran and could influence the regime's decisions. The ability of these actors to facilitate an agreement or, conversely, to obstruct it, will be a determining factor in the success of the negotiations.

The implications for global security

Any agreement between Iran and the United States could have repercussions on global security. The stability of the Middle East is linked to energy issues, with the Strait of Hormuz representing one of the most important oil routes in the world. Any disruption in this area could have a significant impact on oil prices and the global economy. Additionally, the ability to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region is a crucial interest for the international community.

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