Iranian priorities and Israeli concerns

The agreement announced by Trump clearly reflects Iran's priorities rather than those of the United States. According to Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the agreement is received differently in the two countries: while Americans talk about peace, Iranians talk about victory. The published document does not provide many clarifications, as many essential issues are postponed to future negotiation phases.

For now, Iran and the United States have agreed to lift the blockades on maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf and then devote the next two months to resolving everything else. However, it is difficult to see how this schedule could be sustainable. The Iranians have partial success in setting the agenda. The nuclear issue is not part of the agreement, but Israel's behavior in Lebanon is. Tehran has already made it clear that it will not export its highly enriched uranium and does not consider the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a neutral arbiter.

If the Iranians maintain this position, any nuclear agreement could not be adequately verified. Furthermore, the Islamic Republic has not given up monetizing its geography. Fees can take different forms: transit taxes or payments not to attack the Gulf Emirates. The first is a formal agreement; the second is the privilege of a tributary state.

Meanwhile, the Israelis do not appreciate what they have heard so far for various reasons. According to Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the CFR and former special representative for Iran in the first Trump administration, Israel wanted to end Iran's nuclear weapons program. The agreement will allow Iran to continue enriching uranium to some level, even if there is a temporary moratorium. Furthermore, although Iran must renounce or reduce uranium enriched to 60%, it may be able to maintain large amounts of uranium enriched to lower levels.

Israel's concerns

Secondly, Iran has succeeded in linking this agreement to events in Lebanon, which is a defeat and a major concern for Israel. Like the elected government of Lebanon, the Israelis want Iran to stay out of Lebanon, but it seems that the agreement instead calls for an end to Israeli actions there. The Israelis believe that the United States is tying their hands while Iran will continue to support Hezbollah, clandestinely if necessary.

When Hezbollah fighters try to return to southern Lebanon and border areas, without initially firing a shot, they fear that any action against Hezbollah will create a crisis between the Israeli government and the Trump administration. Furthermore, the removal of all sanctions against Iran and the release of billions of dollars in frozen funds are of grave concern to the Israelis. This could mean that there are more resources available for Iranian proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq, as the agreement says nothing to stop this.

It also remains silent on Iran's missile program, which the recent war has shown to be extremely dangerous for Israel. Finally, these financial resources will extend the life of the regime. In fact, the language that Trump is now using about the regime is friendly, just at the moment when he is sharply criticizing the Israeli prime minister for actions in Lebanon. Far from supporting Iranians who want a regime change, it seems that Trump now wants to work with the Iranian regime.

Regional reactions

As the dust settles, it is clear that the agreement will have repercussions throughout the region. The Gulf Emirates, in particular, will be concerned about the prospect of a stronger and better-financed Iran. Oil demand and price stability will be closely monitored, as any disruption of the Hormuz Strait could have global economic consequences.

Meanwhile, the international community will closely observe how the negotiations will develop over the next sixty days. The Iranian nuclear issue remains a key concern, and many are wondering whether the current agreement is robust enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Ultimately, the success of the agreement will depend on the willingness of both parties to respect the terms and work towards lasting peace.