A New Day for Gaza? Experts Scrutinize the Hamas-Israel Agreement

The U.S.-led Board of Peace has announced an agreement that could lead to the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, nearly three years after Hamas's October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, which sparked a conflict that has shaken the region and the world. Hamas officials have confirmed their acceptance of the agreement, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to take a position. The details are complex, and the road ahead is bumpy. We've consulted our experts to answer the most urgent questions about the agreement and its broader consequences.

What Has Hamas Just Agreed To?

Less than twenty-four hours after formal statements by U.S. President Donald Trump on Truth Social and Gaza representative Nickolay Mladenov on X, exactly what Hamas is agreeing to remains a question mark. The biggest question is whether the agreement commits Hamas to giving up not only heavy weapons—like rockets—but also light and personal weapons, such as assault rifles like the AK-47 and pistols. Another question is how the disarmament process will unfold. Point 6 of Trump's original twenty-point plan implies that even light weapons must be dismantled. But a Hamas official said the agreement requires Israel to halt all military conduct, the deployment of an international force, and self-determination, establishing an independent Palestinian state. A cynical reading would be that Hamas knows Israeli officials—especially three months before a national election—are unlikely to accept an agreement, which provides an opportunity for the group to shift blame for the current stalemate onto Trump's twenty-point plan on Jerusalem. But two things can be true at the same time. And such a reading also risks underestimating the amount of pressure Hamas—and its newly formalized leader, Khalil al-Hayya—are currently under from regional mediators, particularly Qatar and Egypt. Moreover, Hamas does not know how the war in Iran will end, or whether it will still have a patron in Tehran willing and able to provide the group with money and capability. At the same time, Israel's withdrawal from the so-called "Yellow Line" as a first step in the agreement remains critical. The agreement also envisions a significant role for the United Nations-authorized International Stabilization Force (ISF) in securing the surrendered weapons and preventing

The Regional Implications and External Actors

The agreement announced by the Board of Peace is not just about Israel and Hamas but has ramifications that extend across the Middle East. Iran, a historic ally of Hamas, may see this agreement as a threat to its influence in the region. Tehran has already expressed concern through its controlled media, suggesting that the agreement could be a "temporary triumph" for the United States. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have normalized relations with Israel, may see the agreement as an opportunity to bolster regional stability and attract international investment. Turkey, which has maintained complex relations with Hamas, could play a key role in mediation. Ankara has already offered its diplomatic platform to facilitate dialogue between the conflicting parties. However, Turkey will need to carefully balance its strategic interests with the need to maintain stable relations with both Israel and the Arab world.

The Humanitarian Situation in Gaza

Regardless of the political outcome of the agreement, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains critical. According to the United Nations, over 80% of Gaza's population depends on humanitarian aid. The agreement calls for the reopening of border crossings and an increase in aid, but its implementation will depend on cooperation between Israel and local authorities. Non-governmental organizations have already begun planning aid distribution but fear that political instability could hinder their efforts. A crucial aspect will be the reconstruction of infrastructure destroyed during the conflict. The World Bank has estimated that billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild Gaza, but without a stable political agreement, international investments will remain limited. The international community, particularly the European Union, has already expressed its willingness to contribute financially but requires guarantees on transparency and the effective use of funds.

The Internal Challenges in Israel

Within Israel, the agreement has sparked mixed reactions. While some see it as an opportunity to end a prolonged conflict, others, particularly far-right parties, view it as a threat to national security. The upcoming Israeli elections in October add another layer of complexity. Netanyahu will face internal pressures to maintain a hard line but cannot afford to alienate his international allies, particularly the United States. Divisions within Israeli society are evident. Polls show that while a majority of Israelis support a peace agreement, many are skeptical of Hamas's ability to uphold its commitments. This skepticism is fueled by years of conflict and a lack of trust in Palestinian institutions. However, Israeli civil society is playing an active role in promoting dialogue and reconciliation, organizing meetings between Israelis and Palestinians to build bridges of understanding.

The Role of the United Nations and the International Community

The United Nations, through the International Stabilization Force (ISF), will play a key role in implementing the agreement. However, recent history shows that peacekeeping missions can be complex and subject to operational challenges. The ISF will have to operate in a highly unstable environment, with the need to ensure the security of surrendered weapons and prevent any violations of the agreement. The international community, particularly the United States and the European Union, will need to exert diplomatic and, if necessary, economic pressure to ensure that both parties uphold their commitments. This includes the possibility of imposing sanctions on those who violate the agreement or obstruct the peace process. Multilateral diplomacy will be essential to ensure that all parties involved are held accountable for their commitments.

A Moment of Hope or Illusion?

The agreement announced by the Board of Peace represents a moment of hope for the region but also a significant test for international diplomacy. The challenges are numerous and complex, but political will and international cooperation can make a difference. For the Palestinians of Gaza, the agreement offers the prospect of a better life, free from violence and repression. For Israel, it represents an opportunity to ensure long-term security and stability. However, the road to peace will not be easy. It will require patience, determination, and a strong will to overcome past divisions. Only through collective commitment and a shared vision of a better future can the dream of lasting peace in the Middle East become a reality.

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