The war in Iran and the escalation of violence in the Middle East

The conflict between the United States and Iran is transforming into an increasingly wider regional war, with violence spreading to numerous countries in the Middle East, threatening to involve external actors such as Russia and Ukraine.

The spread of violence

In recent months, clashes related to the Iran-U.S. conflict have involved:

  • Iraq: U.S. and Saudi attacks against pro-Iranian militias, condemned by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as a violation of national sovereignty.
  • Yemen: Renewed clashes between Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, with attacks on navigation in the Red Sea.
  • Egypt: A drone attack of unknown origin on the port of Damietta caused fires on two ships, with suspicions of possible Israeli false flags.
  • Persian Gulf: Retaliatory Iranian strikes in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan.
  • Caspian Sea: A Ukrainian attack on an Iranian ship bound for Russia marks a dangerous link between the conflicts.

Historical roots of the conflicts

Many of these conflicts predate the Iran-U.S. war:

  • The Saudi intervention in Yemen dates back to 2015, with devastating airstrikes.
  • Houthi attacks on navigation in the Red Sea are a resumption of tactics used in response to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip.
  • Transborder Israeli violence includes attacks in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and clandestine operations in Iran and Jordan.

The crisis of national sovereignty

The principle of state sovereignty, enshrined in the United Nations Charter, is systematically violated in the region:

  • Cross-border attacks in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere.
  • Territorial occupations in Lebanon and Syria.
  • Clandestine operations in neighboring countries.

The only recognized exception to the principle of non-interference is the "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P), but the current regional conflicts represent more of a violation of human rights than their protection.

Regional and global implications

The situation recalls the "war of all against all" described by Thomas Hobbes, with:

  • "Brutal and short" life in areas like the Gaza Strip.
  • The risk of merging the Iran-Ukraine-Russia conflicts.
  • Threats of escalation from actors like Donald Trump.

The region risks becoming a convergence point for global conflicts, with potentially catastrophic implications for international stability.

Economic and humanitarian implications

The spiral of violence in the region has not only geopolitical consequences but also serious economic and humanitarian impacts:

  • The disruption of maritime traffic in the Red Sea is causing global supply shortages and increased costs for goods.
  • The Yemeni economy, already devastated by war, risks total collapse with a new Saudi offensive.
  • The civilian population in Gaza lives in inhuman conditions, with record infant mortality rates and destroyed healthcare and educational infrastructures.
  • The refugee crisis is intensifying, with thousands of people fleeing Syria, Yemen, and Gaza to already overburdened countries.

Internal dynamics and regional alliances

The tensions are also reshaping alliances and internal dynamics in the region:

  • Saudi Arabia is seeking to involve other countries in its coalition against the Houthis, creating a new military alliance.
  • In Yemen, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has turned into armed conflict, with both supporting different factions.
  • Iran is strengthening its ties with Shiite groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen as part of its horizontal escalation strategy.
  • Israel sees the opportunity to unite the wars in Iran and Ukraine to weaken its adversaries.

The role of external powers

External powers are playing contrasting roles in the crisis:

  • The United States continues to support Saudi Arabia and Israel, despite growing internal opposition to interventionism.
  • Russia is seeking to exploit the situation to expand its influence in the region.
  • China is seeking to maintain a neutral position while protecting its economic interests.
  • The United Nations and the EU are divided on how to respond, with some countries pushing for sanctions and others for negotiations.

Future scenarios

Experts predict several possible scenarios for the future of the region:

  • Uncontrolled escalation leading to a wider conflict between regional and global powers.
  • Further fragmentation of the region, with new failed states and war zones.
  • A possible change in leadership in some key countries that could alter the balance of power.
  • An attempt at international mediation, although the prospects for success are slim.

Global implications

The repercussions of the conflict are already being felt globally:

  • Oil prices are rising due to disruptions in production and transport.
  • Financial markets are becoming more volatile due to geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Global supply chains are experiencing further disruptions.
  • The risk of terrorist attacks is increasing in response to violence in the region.

As the situation continues to deteriorate, the international community is called upon to find creative and courageous solutions to prevent a regional and global catastrophe. However, with the current power dynamics and deep divisions, the prospects for peace and stability remain remote.

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