Abdul El-Sayed wins the Democratic nomination in Michigan: implications for the 2027 Senate

Abdul El-Sayed wins Democratic nomination for Michigan Senate

Abdul El-Sayed, former director of Wayne County's health department, achieved a significant victory on Tuesday, defeating incumbent Representative Haley Stevens to become the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Michigan. With 95% of the votes counted, El-Sayed secured 48.6% compared to Stevens' 47.3%. Major media networks declared El-Sayed the winner, marking another success for progressive candidates in this election cycle.

A campaign centered on criticizing the US-Israel relationship

Similar to other recent campaigns in New York and Colorado, El-Sayed made his opposition to the US-Israel relationship and pro-Israel lobby groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) central to his campaign. He described his criticism as a fight against the corrupting influence of money in American policies and a denunciation of US foreign policy.

“AIPAC has spent a record amount in this race to elect my opponent because they will be a reliable vote for a foreign government that is helping, arming, and enabling a genocide,” El-Sayed wrote on X a week before the vote. “I want your tax dollars spent on Michigan’s schools, Michigan’s healthcare, and Michigan’s roads.” Shortly before the election, he mocked the interest group for finding “the least capable candidate in America,” referring to Stevens.

National and local implications

Unlike other election results in other parts of the country, the result in Michigan is a state race in a competitive state, where the outcome in November could play a decisive role in controlling the Senate in 2027. El-Sayed will face Mike Rogers, a former congressman who lost a tight Senate race during the last election cycle and ran in an uncontested primary this time.

Before the vote count, the winner's allies argued that this race represented more than just a choice of candidate for a single Senate contest. Ben Rhodes, a former close aide to President Barack Obama turned critic of the US-Israel relationship, wrote a long thread on social media accusing AIPAC of resorting to lies because they could no longer make a strong and substantial case.

“Money must lose. Abdul—and the voters of Michigan—can show that democracy is still something that is in the hands of the people,” Rhodes wrote. AIPAC has spent so much money in this race, he added, “because they want you to feel powerless. So that you think nothing can change.”

Reactions and election spending

For her part, Stevens described herself as a “proudly pro-Israel Democrat” and accused her opponent of wanting to “blame all his problems on American Jews.” She voted against a recent amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would have cut $3.3 billion in aid to Tel Aviv.

The largest Super PAC of AIPAC, the United Democracy Project (UDP), spent a record $30.6 million in this race. In total, AIPAC has spent over $60 million in the Democratic primaries of the 2026 election cycle, compared to about $40 million two years ago, according to a recent New York Times report.

Message for the Democratic Party

Once NBC News declared El-Sayed the winner, supporters said his victory should send a message to the Democratic Party. "AIPAC spent over $30 million to stop Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in this race, and that record sum wasn’t enough because Democratic voters are tired of the fringe and extremist view that our tax dollars should pay for bombs, wars, and Israel’s genocidal ambitions," stated Margaret DeReus, executive director of the IMEU Policy Project, in a statement.

As Eli Clifton of the Quincy Institute wrote in Responsible Statecraft in July, the money donated to the UDP, outside of what came directly from AIPAC, came disproportionately from Republicans and donors from other states. The UDP is seeking to counter a growing anti-Israel sentiment among the Democratic Party base, largely avoiding directly addressing the issue in its advertisements.

“Abdul El-Sayed’s victory last night is a significant setback for AIPAC and the Israel Lobby, groups that spent record amounts to elect Haley Stevens, a politician who would have continued to support unconditional aid to Israel,” Clifton told RS. “Michigan Democrats sent the message that they rejected this influence on their primary election and the policy it represents.”

Mixed results in other races

Across the country on Tuesday, the results were more mixed. In Missouri’s first district, incumbent Democratic Representative Wesley Bell defeated progressive challenger Cori Bush by over 20 percentage points. Bell ousted Bush in 2024 in a race that was then the second most expensive House primary in American history. AIPAC, which was a major funder in Bell’s victory, spent about $2 million to support the incumbent this time, compared to more than $9 million in 2024.