Libya: the 4+4 agreement for national elections and the crucial role of the UN

On August 30, representatives of Libya's main political and security blocs signed an agreement facilitated by the UN aimed at resolving disputes over the rules and constitutional basis for national elections, which have been stalled since 2021. This agreement, known as the "4+4", has two key deadlines: the House of Representatives (HOR) and the High State Council (HSC) must approve it by the end of September. Subsequently, the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) expires on October 31.

Quick Response

  • The 4+4 agreement aims to resolve Libya's electoral disputes, stalled since 2021
  • HOR and HSC must approve it by the end of September
  • The UNSMIL mandate expires on October 31
  • The agreement allows military personnel and dual nationals to run for president
  • There is no mechanism to form a unified executive authority

Key clauses of the agreement

The agreement, the result of seven rounds of negotiations that began in Rome on April 29, addresses the first two milestones of the UNSMIL roadmap: the reconstitution of the High National Electoral Commission (HNEC) and the resolution of legal and constitutional disputes. It allows military personnel to vote and run for president, while dual nationals can run provided they renounce any other nationality before swearing in. It separates the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections, eliminating the need for a runoff even in case of a victory of more than 50%.

Contrasting reactions from Libyan parties

The initial reactions highlight future challenges. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah welcomed the agreement as an important step towards ending the transitional phases, while General Khalifa Haftar supported the outcome. House Speaker Aguila Saleh conditioned his support on consistency with the existing constitutional and legal framework. Supreme Council President Mohammed Takala warned against "the imposition of agreements from outside the Libyan institutional framework".

Immediate challenges

Neither the HOR nor the HSC need explicitly reject the agreement to obstruct the process before the end-of-September deadline. They could simply not convene, fail to reach a quorum, defer the text for further consideration, or impose conditions that reopen already resolved issues. Libya has seen similar tactics in the past, such as in 2016 when the HOR passed a motion of no confidence in the Government of National Accord.

The future of UNSMIL

The second deadline is October 31, when the current UNSMIL mandate expires. A twelve-month extension would keep the mission operational, but duration alone would not make it fit for purpose. The agreement assigns UNSMIL specific tasks: helping to build the follow-up framework, designing an alternative if elections prove impossible, and convening the parties in case of disagreement. The mission already has the authority to do this work, but it lacks the explicit support of the Security Council for this particular agreement and the reports that track its implementation.

The role of the United States

Senior U.S. envoy Massad Boulos and other international partners welcomed the UN agreement and urged Libyan institutions to implement it. The United States has emphasized that its bilateral diplomacy supports the UNSMIL roadmap, telling the Security Council in August that "efforts are completely complementary to the UNSMIL roadmap".

Washington's next moves

The U.S. mission to New York, the Treasury Department, and the State Department can take three steps to turn declared support into demonstrated alignment with the UN-led process. First, build consensus among international partners. Second, ensure that UNSMIL has the political support it needs to implement the agreement. Third, ensure that the next UNSMIL mandate is up to the task.

Over the next two months, the implementation of this agreement and the renewal of the UNSMIL mandate will be put to the test. The international community will need to work together to support this process and help Libya overcome its political crisis.

The regional context and implications for international actors

Stabilizing Libya represents a strategic interest for numerous regional actors, each with its own geopolitical and economic interests. Egypt, for example, fears instability on its western border and has historically supported General Haftar. Turkey, on the other hand, has heavily invested in the region through security and infrastructure contracts, supporting Dbeibah's government. Italy, with its energy interests in the Mediterranean, has a strong interest in seeing a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Economic challenges and the country's recovery

Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but production has been severely hampered by political clashes. Economic recovery will depend on the ability of institutions to coordinate efforts to exploit these resources. The reconstruction of oil infrastructure and the stabilization of the energy market will be crucial for the country's future. According to the World Bank, Libya needs a coordinated economic plan to avoid further financial crises.

Security and the risk of fragmentation

Libya has been the scene of numerous armed militias operating outside central control. The 4+4 agreement attempts to integrate these groups into the political process, allowing military personnel to run for elective office. However, the lack of a clear mechanism for forming a unified executive authority could lead to further tensions. UNSMIL will have to face the challenge of mediating between these forces to avoid further fragmentation.

Implications for international investors

Political stabilization in Libya could open new opportunities for international investors. However, the risk of instability continues to represent a significant obstacle. Companies operating in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and security will need to carefully assess geopolitical risks. The lack of a clear and stable legal framework makes it difficult to plan long-term investments.

The role of the United Nations and future challenges

UNSMIL has a crucial role in facilitating the political process in Libya. However, the mission must face numerous challenges, including the lack of explicit political support from the Security Council. The extension of the mission's mandate for twelve months is essential, but not sufficient to ensure the success of the electoral process. UNSMIL will need to work closely with Libyan institutions to build an effective follow-up framework.

Prospects for national elections

National elections represent a fundamental step for the stabilization of Libya. However, the lack of a clear mechanism for the formation of a unified executive authority could hinder the process. The separation of the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections could also lead to further tensions. UNSMIL will need to carefully monitor the electoral process to ensure that it is transparent and inclusive.

Implications for regional security

The stabilization of Libya has significant implications for the security of the Mediterranean and North Africa. Turkey, Egypt, and other regional actors have a strong interest in seeing a peaceful resolution of the conflict. UNSMIL will need to work with these actors to ensure that the political process is inclusive and representative of all stakeholders.

Economic prospects and foreign investments

The role of the United States and future challenges

The United States has a crucial role in supporting the political process in Libya. However, the lack of demonstrated alignment with the UNSMIL roadmap could hinder efforts to stabilize the country. The U.S. mission to New York, the Treasury Department, and the State Department will need to work together to build consensus among international partners and ensure that UNSMIL has the political support it needs.

The road to stabilization

Conclusion and future forecasts

The signing of the 4+4 agreement represents an important step toward the stabilization of Libya, but the challenges remain significant. UNSMIL will have to face numerous difficulties in facilitating the political process and ensuring that national elections are transparent and inclusive. The international community will need to support these efforts to help Libya overcome its political crisis. If the agreement is successfully implemented, Libya may finally find a way out of its chronic instability.

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