The New EU Security Architecture: Challenges and Opportunities Against Russian Hybrid Aggression

The challenge of von der Leyen for a new European security architecture

The recent State of the Union speech by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has highlighted a worrying reality: European institutions have failed to keep pace with the escalation of Russian hybrid actions. Moscow is intensifying its campaign of aggression in the gray zone, while Europe continues to react rather than build a credible deterrence.

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The gaps in the EU's current approach

Von der Leyen's plan presents several criticisms, particularly the maintenance of the unanimity requirement that has already blocked EU sanctions against Russia in the past. The possibility that a single captured government could obstruct collective action represents a significant weak point in the European response.

The potential European Security Council

Among the proposals under discussion is the creation of a European Security Council that would include EU leaders along with partners such as Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Canada. However, its effectiveness remains uncertain, especially if all participants have veto power.

The need for a more active defensive strategy

European policymakers recognize the need for new approaches to address the deteriorating security landscape. Deterrence can no longer be based solely on strategic restraint. Instead, Europe should adopt a more proactive defensive strategy, as Russia will continue to expand its hostile actions until it encounters Europe's true red lines.

Extension of air defense in Ukraine

A concrete possibility is to bridge the strategic gap between NATO air defenses and Ukrainian airspace. Currently, Russia holds the tactical initiative as Europe waits for Russian missiles and drones to cross EU territory before responding. Instead of attempting to protect all of Ukraine, European countries could consider extending the European Sky Shield initiative to cover parts of western Ukraine.

The Polish perspective

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz have both advocated a broader role in Ukrainian air defense. Sikorski argued that it is better to shoot down Russian missiles and drones while they are still in Ukrainian airspace rather than waiting for them to cross the Polish border. Similarly, Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized that it is in Poland's national interest to support Ukraine in intercepting missiles before they reach Poland.

Addressing the Russian shadow fleet

The Russian shadow fleet, composed of tankers evading sanctions, represents a crucial source of funding for Putin's war machine. Europe could adopt a more assertive approach, such as boarding ships and detaining crews operating without proper certification or insurance. Additionally, legal options could be explored to move from temporary detention of ships to their confiscation.

Maximizing European financial leverage

The freezing of over $200 billion of the Russian Central Bank's reserves was a necessary step in 2022, but it was not enough to curb the Kremlin's aggression. Recently, some countries have resumed the debate on how to allocate these funds to support Ukraine, seeking legal solutions that allow access to these assets.

Balancing risks and inaction

All of these measures carry significant risks. The confiscation of Russian assets could destabilize the European financial system and provoke a strong reaction from Moscow. Similarly, airspace interception and maritime interdiction could lead to further escalation. However, inaction is not without risks and could further encourage Russia to intensify its actions.

Towards an effective hybrid strategy

Europe needs a new playbook against hybrid aggression, but an approach that focuses primarily on coordinating responses after attacks is not an effective deterrent. A true hybrid strategy should identify Europe's leverage over Moscow and convert it into consequences that the Kremlin truly fears. As long as Russian hybrid attacks in Europe do not produce direct strategic losses for Moscow, Putin will continue to increase the pressure.