Ethiopia on the brink of a new civil conflict

Ethiopia is on the brink of a new civil conflict, with intense clashes between federal forces and rebels in the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. The latest fighting has caused hundreds of deaths, marking a worrying escalation in a country still recovering from a bloody civil war that killed around 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022. The formation of a rebel military coalition, named Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, has sparked new violence with the declared aim of overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali.

The most intense fighting has focused on the Tigray region, the epicenter of the previous civil conflict. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has made significant territorial gains, taking control of the international airport of Alula Aba Nega in the regional capital of Mekelle, as well as the airports of Axum and Shire. In response, Ethiopian Airlines has suspended all flights to these locations, isolating much of the region from commercial air traffic.

Rapidly evolving alliance dynamics

A key element of this crisis is the formation of unprecedented alliances between formerly adversarial rebel groups. Among these, the National Fano Movement, a separatist alliance active in the Amhara region, has now joined forces with the TPLF against the federal government. This strategic shift reflects a convergence of interests between the two groups, both determined to counter the central control of Addis Ababa.

The Fano has intensified its military operations against the federal government in recent years, motivated by the fight against what it considers systematic oppression of the Amhara region. The new alliance with the TPLF therefore represents a significant shift in the Ethiopian political and military landscape, with potential implications for the entire Horn of Africa region.

Historical context and recent tensions

The recent violence is set against a backdrop of growing internal tensions. In May, the TPLF resumed control of Tigray's political administration, accusing the federal government of failing to honor the Pretoria Agreement, which had ended the previous civil conflict. Since then, sporadic clashes between federal forces and rebels have multiplied, with airstrikes hitting civilians, drawing criticism from human rights organizations.

Rapid Response

Ethiopia is facing a new wave of violence with clashes between government forces and rebels in the northern regions. The rebel coalition aims to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali. The TPLF has made significant territorial gains in Tigray, while the Fano has changed alliances to join forces against the federal government. Tensions are fueled by disputes over past peace agreements and airstrikes that have hit civilians.

The international position and regional implications

The international community has adopted a cautious approach, with the United States imposing visa restrictions on TPLF officials but lifting sanctions against Eritrea, potentially facilitating Asmara's intervention in the conflict. Eritrea, once an ally of Ethiopia, has switched sides due to growing tensions over the issue of Ethiopian access to the Red Sea.

The complex dynamics of the Horn of Africa

The Ethiopian crisis is intertwined with other regional tensions, particularly the dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt, concerned about water security, has strengthened ties with Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia, offering diplomatic and military support. These countries are involved in internal conflicts, further complicating the geopolitical situation in the Horn of Africa.

Implications for regional stability

The escalation of conflict in Ethiopia threatens to further destabilize an already fragile region. The formation of unprecedented alliances and the intervention of external actors such as Eritrea and Egypt add layers of complexity to the crisis. The international community is called upon to find diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation that could have repercussions throughout East Africa.

Economic impact and humanitarian challenges

The escalation of the conflict is having a devastating impact on Ethiopia's economy, already hard hit by the previous civil war. The agricultural sector, which represents about 35% of GDP, is particularly vulnerable, with disruptions in supply chains and difficulties in accessing international markets. The northern regions, the heart of agricultural production, are suffering significant losses, threatening the food security of millions of people.

Humanitarian organizations report a rapidly expanding humanitarian crisis, with over 2 million internally displaced people and 400,000 refugees in neighboring countries. Access to aid is severely limited due to violence and restrictions imposed by the warring parties. The UN has launched an appeal for $1.4 billion to address the crisis, but the funds raised so far cover only 20% of the needs.

The role of digital technologies in the crisis

Digital technologies are playing a crucial role in the conflict, both as tools of propaganda and as means to coordinate military operations. The federal government has intensified online surveillance, using communication monitoring software to identify and arrest alleged supporters of the rebels. At the same time, rebel groups use encrypted messaging apps and mesh networks to avoid censorship and coordinate their activities.

Cyber insurance is becoming a priority for companies operating in Ethiopia, with a 40% increase in requests for cyber risk policies in the last six months. Local technology companies are investing in managed Security Operations Centers (SOC) to improve incident response and breach remediation.

Peace prospects and international mediation

The African Union (AU) has initiated a mediation process, with Commission President Moussa Faki at the forefront of promoting dialogue between the warring parties. However, previous mediation attempts have failed due to a lack of trust between the parties. The international community is considering the possibility of imposing targeted sanctions on military leaders of both sides to encourage a return to the negotiating table.

Italy, as a member of the United Nations Security Council, is exploring the possibility of promoting a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian access to the affected areas. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has met with representatives of all parties in conflict to discuss the conditions for a possible peace agreement.

Implications for regional security

The Ethiopian crisis is having repercussions on the security of the entire Horn of Africa region. Somalia, already grappling with a serious humanitarian crisis and internal insurgencies, fears an increase in the flow of refugees and illegal arms across porous borders. The Somali government has requested the support of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to strengthen security along the border with Ethiopia.

Sudan, involved in an internal civil war, is trying to maintain a neutral position, but its stability is threatened by rising ethnic tensions and the presence of armed groups operating along the border with Ethiopia. Egypt, concerned about water security, is strengthening its military presence in northern Sudan to protect its strategic interests.

Future prospects and possible scenarios

Short-term peace prospects appear poorly favorable, with both sides determined to gain military advantages before returning to the negotiating table. However, a prolonged conflict could lead to a regional escalation, involving external actors such as Eritrea and Egypt. The international community must act quickly to prevent further escalation and promote an inclusive peace process.

Ethiopia is at a crossroads: a return to stability will require not only a political agreement but also structural reforms to address the deep ethnic and regional divisions that have fueled the conflict. Rebuilding the social fabric and promoting an inclusive economy will be crucial to ensuring lasting peace.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the economic impact of the conflict in Ethiopia?

The conflict is having a devastating impact on Ethiopia's economy, with significant losses in the agricultural sector and disruptions in supply chains. GDP could contract by 5% by the end of the year, according to World Bank estimates.

How can companies protect themselves from cyber risks during the conflict?

Companies operating in Ethiopia are investing in managed Security Operations Centers (SOC) and cyber risk policies to improve incident response and breach remediation. The implementation of Data Loss Prevention (DLP) solutions has become a priority to protect sensitive data.

What is the role of the African Union in the Ethiopian crisis?

The African Union is attempting to mediate between the warring parties, with Commission President Moussa Faki at the forefront of promoting dialogue. However, previous mediation attempts have failed due to a lack of trust between the parties.

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