Bab el-Mandeb closed: the Red Sea becomes a strategic battlefield

The Bab el-Mandeb Crisis: The Closure of the Second Oil Gateway

The occupation of Mayyun Island by the Houthis in September 2026 marked a turning point in the strategic geography of the Red Sea. The twenty-nine kilometers of international waters between Yemen and Djibouti, which form the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are now under the control of Ansar Allah, the Iranian-backed Shiite movement. This move has closed the second and last escape route for Saudi oil, after the Strait of Hormuz had already become impassable due to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Quick Response

The East-West Pipeline: The Backup Route Now Blocked

After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia had activated the East-West pipeline, a 1,200-kilometer route connecting the Abqaiq fields to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea. From Yanbu, tankers could still reach international markets. However, the Houthi occupation of Mayyun has made this route equally unsafe. The island, positioned in the center of the strait, serves as an armed surveillance platform with radar, anti-ship missiles, mines, and drones.

The Saudi Military Response and Conflict Escalation

Saudi Arabia reacted with a series of airstrikes on Yemen, hitting military targets and infrastructure. Between September 8 and 9, drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi cities such as Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran, causing 73 injuries and fires in southern petroleum facilities. The Houthis responded with unprecedented attacks: for the first time since July 2026, the capital Riyadh was hit in the early hours of September 19.

Economic Implications: Rising Insurance Premiums

Before the crisis, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal handled about 12% of global maritime trade and a significant share of the oil bound for Europe. The closure of the strait has forced shipping companies to consider alternative routes that bypass Africa, extending travel times by two weeks. This change has already led to an increase in insurance premiums for ships transiting the region, with repercussions on global transportation costs.

Djibouti: The Crossroads of Military Powers

Djibouti, located west of Bab el-Mandeb, hosts military bases of the United States, France, Italy, China, and Japan. This concentration of international powers in such a small area creates a unique tension situation, where major powers keep an eye on each other. To the east, outside the map's frame, Oman acts as an intermediary for talks between the Houthis and the United States, allowing American ships to avoid the blockade. This secret agreement explains why the geopolitical map of the region is constantly evolving.

The Geopolitics of Straits: Who Controls the Gates

The current crisis demonstrates that control of maritime straits no longer depends on traditional naval fleets, but on the ability to close or open routes at will. The Houthis, although not a naval power, have shown they can influence the flow of global trade simply by controlling a strategic island. This paradigm shift requires a reformulation of maritime security strategies and greater attention to geographical vulnerabilities.

Implications for Europe and Energy Markets

Europe, which heavily relies on oil transiting through the Red Sea, now faces a potentially devastating energy crisis. Alternative routes not only increase costs but also introduce new risk variables. Energy companies will need to carefully assess the risks associated with new routes, while European governments may be forced to further diversify their supply sources.

Italy's Role and Military Bases in Djibouti

Italy, with a military base in Djibouti, is in a strategic position to monitor the situation. However, the Italian presence is also a potential target, as demonstrated by the damage to an Eurofighter at the King Fahd airbase in Ta'if. Italy's position in this crisis will be crucial, not only for the security of its armed forces but also for its role in the international community.

Future Prospects: An Evolving Conflict

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has already transformed the strategic geography of the Middle East. With the closure of Bab el-Mandeb, the situation is further complicated. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether the parties in conflict will be able to reach an agreement or if the region will sink into further escalation. In this context, the ability to mediate and find diplomatic solutions will be fundamental to preventing a global crisis.

The Importance of Cyber Insurance for Shipping Companies

In a context of growing instability, shipping companies will need to consider purchasing cyber insurance to protect themselves from cyberattacks that could compromise operations. Incident response and breach remediation will become essential components of maritime security strategies, especially in a region where control of routes is constantly evolving.

The Need for SOC as a Service for Maritime Security

The complexity of the situation requires an integrated approach to security, including a managed Security Operations Center (SOC as a Service). This would allow shipping companies to continuously monitor threats and respond quickly to attacks. A MDR service (Managed Detection and Response) could be particularly useful for identifying and neutralizing threats in real-time.

Compliance with the NIS2 Directive and DORA Regulation

In a context of growing instability, shipping companies will need to ensure NIS2 compliance and adherence to the DORA regulation for digital operational resilience. This will include protecting sensitive data through Data Loss Prevention (corporate DLP) solutions and implementing a Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) system to monitor suspicious activities.

Risk Management Through Penetration Testing

To prevent cyberattacks, shipping companies will need to regularly conduct penetration tests and vulnerability assessments to identify and correct vulnerabilities in their systems. ISO 27001 certification may become an essential requirement for operating in a high-risk region like the Red Sea.

Protection Against Ransomware and Recovery

The threat of ransomware attacks is particularly severe in a context of growing instability. Shipping companies will need to implement ransomware protection solutions and develop ransomware recovery plans to restore operations in case of an attack. This will include creating enterprise backups and business continuity solutions to ensure operational continuity.

Identity Management and Zero Trust Architecture

In a context of growing cyber threats, shipping companies will need to implement identity access management (IAM) solutions and adopt a zero trust architecture to ensure that only authorized users can access critical systems. This integrated approach to security will be fundamental to preventing cyberattacks and ensuring operational security.

Risk Management Through AML Crypto Compliance

Shipping companies will also need to ensure AML crypto compliance and implement KYC exchange solutions to prevent money laundering through cryptocurrencies. This will be particularly important in a context of growing instability, where the risk of illegal activities is high.

Crypto Asset Management and Taxation

Shipping companies operating in high-risk regions may consider crypto asset management as part of their risk diversification strategy. However, they will also need to ensure crypto taxation in Italy and comply with local regulations to avoid sanctions.

Institutional Crypto Custody and MiCA Regulation

Shipping companies operating in high-risk regions may consider institutional crypto custody as part of their risk management strategy. However, they will also need to ensure MiCA compliance and adhere to European regulations to avoid sanctions.