The withdrawal of the United States from Iraq: the end of a strategic era

After 23 years of continuous military presence, the United States has completed the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq. This withdrawal, agreed upon in 2024, marks the end of a significant chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitical relations, with implications that go far beyond Iraqi borders. The 2003 invasion, motivated by the response to 9/11 and the goal of installing a friendly regime, proved to be a strategic failure, with effects that persist to this day.

Quick Response

  • The US withdrawal from Iraq marks the end of 23 years of continuous military presence
  • The 2003 invasion failed in its goal of creating a pro-American regime
  • The withdrawal occurs during a period of reduced American influence in the region
  • Iran has gained a strategic position after the withdrawal
  • The situation at Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab increases pressure on Washington's allies

The strategic illusions and their lasting effects

The 2003 invasion was based on two fundamental convictions: the ability to intimidate enemies after 9/11 and the presumed ability of Iraqis to self-organize into a pro-American regime. Both of these illusions proved to be wrong. The withdrawal demonstrates that the United States has failed to co-opt Iraqi leaders and occurs at a time when Iran has gained strategic positions in the region.

Conflict with Iran: negotiations and economic pressures

As the withdrawal from Iraq proceeds, the conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies. Iran has proposed a seven-day truce, including a pause in the conflict in Lebanon, through Qatari mediation. The proposal included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of nuclear talks. However, President Trump refused, demanding concrete commitments on the nuclear weapon in exchange for American concessions.

Economic impact and geopolitical pressures

The war has caused a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with petroleum exports from Gulf countries halved compared to pre-conflict levels. The scarcity of oil and the increase in freight rates are causing a rise in fuel and production costs, compressing global consumption. Threats from the Houthis at Bab al-Mandab add further risks to Saudi exports in the Red Sea.

Putin threatens the use of nuclear weapons to defend Kaliningrad

Meanwhile, in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the West not to escalate the confrontation over Ukraine, threatening to defend Kaliningrad with every means, including nuclear weapons. Putin declared that Russia possesses unique competitive advantages, such as long-range hypersonic missiles and tactical land-to-land systems 9K720 Iskander-M, which can hit European capitals like Warsaw, Berlin, and Copenhagen.

The Switzerland rejects the initiative on neutrality

In an increasingly unstable international context, Switzerland has rejected with 70.15% of the votes an initiative that would have strengthened the "permanent and armed" character of its neutrality. The initiative, supported by Pro Svizzera and the Swiss People's Party (SVP), aimed to limit the application of neutrality, especially in relation to sanctions against belligerent states. The defeat of the initiative reflects the will of Swiss voters to maintain a flexible neutrality, suitable for a rapidly evolving international system.

The conflict in Tigray: new alliances and power dynamics

In the Horn of Africa, armed clashes in Tigray are reaching a critical point. Unlike the 2020-22 conflict, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) seems capable of defeating the Tigrayans more quickly. However, the formation of the "Coalition for Survival," which brings together armed groups from seven ethnicities, represents a new dynamic in the Ethiopian political landscape. The government of Abiy Ahmed is engaged in centralizing power, an approach that could exacerbate tensions between centralization and decentralization.

Implications for global security

The withdrawal of the United States from Iraq and the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa have significant implications for global security. The reduced American influence in the region could create a power vacuum that other actors, such as Iran, might seek to fill. At the same time, Putin's nuclear threats and tensions in Ukraine add another level of complexity to the geopolitical situation.

Future prospects and possible scenarios

As the world adapts to these changes, it is crucial to monitor developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran, internal dynamics in Ethiopia, and Russia's strategic moves. The ability to manage these crises effectively will be crucial to maintaining regional and global stability. International actors will need to navigate this complex landscape with caution, seeking to avoid escalations that could have catastrophic consequences.

Iraq between Iran and the United States: a precarious balance

The US withdrawal leaves Iraq in a delicate geopolitical position, suspended between Iran's growing influence and the reduced capacity for American intervention. Tehran has already demonstrated its ability to strike sensitive targets in the Gulf, such as American bases in Bahrain and Qatar, making its regional ascent evident. At the same time, Iraq must deal with a fragile economic situation, worsened by the decline in petroleum exports and pressure on critical infrastructure. The stability of the country will largely depend on the ability of local institutions to resist external interference.

Cybersecurity and infrastructure vulnerabilities

In this context, the protection of Iraq's critical infrastructure becomes an absolute priority. With the withdrawal of US troops, the risk of cyberattacks against pipelines, power plants, and government structures increases. Iraq will need to invest in cyber insurance and managed SOC to ensure a timely incident response. The lack of adequate NIS2 compliance could leave the country exposed to systemic threats, with significant economic and social repercussions.

The role of regional powers

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are already seeking to fill the void left by the United States. Ankara has intensified operations against the Kurds in northern Iraq, while Riyadh seeks to consolidate its influence through economic and military agreements. This game of alliances could further destabilize the region, creating new tensions among actors with conflicting interests.

Europe between neutrality and collective security

The Swiss decision to maintain flexible neutrality reflects a broader trend in Europe. As the Russian nuclear threat becomes increasingly concrete, European countries must balance the need for security with the principle of non-alignment. The zero trust architecture and identity access management become essential tools for protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks, both by states and criminal groups.

The Horn of Africa: a new front of instability

The conflict in Tigray is not isolated but part of a broader power dynamic in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia are all seeking to assert their influence in a region strategic for maritime trade. The formation of new ethnic alliances could lead to further fragmentation, with unpredictable consequences for regional stability.

The global economic impact

The reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Bab al-Mandab are causing a global increase in energy costs. Companies must prepare for scenarios of disaster recovery as a service and business continuity to mitigate operational risks. The crypto taxation Italy and crypto asset management could become diversification tools for investors concerned about the volatility of traditional markets.

Future prospects: towards a new world order

The withdrawal of the United States from Iraq marks the beginning of a new chapter in global geopolitics. As regional powers seek to fill the void left by Washington, Europe and Asia must adapt to an increasingly multipolar international system. The ability to manage crises effectively will be crucial to avoiding escalations that could have catastrophic consequences.

The challenge of cybersecurity in an unstable world

In this context, cyber insurance and MDR services become essential tools for protecting critical infrastructure. Companies must invest in penetration testing and vulnerability assessment to identify and mitigate vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. The DORA compliance and digital operational resilience will be fundamental to ensuring the continuity of operations in an increasingly complex and threatening environment.

Navigating turbulent waters

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the implications of the US withdrawal from Iraq?

The withdrawal marks the end of a strategic era, leaving Iraq vulnerable to regional influences and increasing the risk of instability. The reduced American presence could create a power vacuum that other actors, such as Iran, might seek to fill.

How does the conflict in the Middle East affect energy markets?

What are the essential security measures for critical infrastructure?

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