The withdrawal of US forces and the challenge to Baghdad's authority
On October 4, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi condemned the trampling of American flags during the Sovereignty Day celebrations, while his government announced arrests. Less than twenty-four hours later, an account associated with Akram al-Kaabi, leader of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, posted a video in which Kaabi walks over the flags of the United States and Israel. Although undated, the spread of the video represents a public challenge to the prime minister's authority.
Preceding this episode, the forces of the US-led coalition had completed their withdrawal from Iraq, marking the end of Operation Inherent Resolve. The withdrawal of the troops, not present as occupying forces but at the invitation of Baghdad to fight ISIS, represents an exercise of Iraqi sovereignty. However, this has not consolidated the Iraqi state's monopoly on the legitimate use of force.
The complex dynamics of Iraqi armed forces
The Iraqi government guaranteed the withdrawal of foreign forces before ensuring the obedience of internal armed factions. This has reduced Baghdad's leverage against Iranian allies in Iraq. Iraq now faces a new test of sovereignty: controlling the political and economic networks that allow Iran to influence Iraqi decisions without US military support.
Iranian influence is based on an agreement that employs Iraqi resources to support forces that Baghdad cannot effectively command. Groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq maintain formations within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), while maintaining ties with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These groups receive public salaries and operate through overlapping military, political, and commercial networks, obtaining state legitimacy without having to answer to the commander-in-chief.
The political and economic influence of armed factions
The political influence of these factions makes coercion more lasting. For example, Asaib Ahl al-Haq's Sadiqoun movement holds seats in parliament, while the Badr Organization has built influence in the Ministry of the Interior. These party networks influence senior appointments, contracts, and local security, while armed control of checkpoints and border routes generates revenue. In 2025, the US Department of the Treasury accused the Muhandis General Company, controlled by Kataib Hezbollah, of obtaining illicit funds and providing arms to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
PMF factions are not unique instruments of Iran. They have different patrons, constituents, and interests, and many of their fighters have contributed to defeating ISIS. However, Iran benefits from partners who can block unwanted policies without controlling the entire government. A prime minister who challenges their privileges must face actors whose votes, jobs, and armed followers help support the governing coalition.
The celebration of sovereignty without a disarmament agreement
Baghdad designated October 1 as Sovereignty Day and declared a public holiday around the coalition's withdrawal. The celebrations offered a politically useful measure of success: the foreign troops had left. However, Baghdad postponed a more difficult measure of success: bringing weapons under state control from September 2026 to June 2027. Kataib Hezbollah denied having reached a disarmament agreement with Zaidi, and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani welcomed the withdrawal as an opening for the continued role of resistance.
Days before the withdrawal, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba threatened to organize sit-ins at airports after Baghdad imposed restrictions on Iranian flights at Iraqi airports, in line with recent US sanctions. Meanwhile, Kataib Hezbollah urged Iraqis to break "the US siege on Iran" by buying more Iranian goods. Such requests demonstrate how various militias can use their resistance rhetoric to exert direct political pressure on Baghdad regarding its trade and transport policies.
The implications of the US withdrawal
The withdrawal of US forces removes an argument for the need for militias to keep their weapons. It provides Baghdad with a reason to ask factions to honor their claims of defending national sovereignty. However, some factions have expanded their conditions, including ending US influence on Iraqi financial decisions. Kaabi's video walking on the US flag demonstrated that the militias' resistance to the US can survive the presence of US soldiers. The significance of the video lies in the public challenge to the government by the commander, not in the respect or disrespect of a foreign flag.
Baghdad's authority depends on the consistent enforcement of its laws, including against those protected by armed organizations. The value of the relationship with the United States lay less in any US promise to protect individual politicians than in supporting an alternative to security relations shaped by Iran's allies.
The challenge of Iraqi sovereignty
The withdrawal of US forces represents a complex geopolitical dynamic that tests Iraqi sovereignty. While Baghdad celebrates the withdrawal of foreign troops, it must face the challenge of controlling the political and economic networks that allow Iran to influence Iraqi decisions. Armed factions, with their political and economic influence, represent a significant obstacle to the assertion of state authority. The Iraqi government must carefully navigate between internal pressures and external influences to assert its sovereignty and ensure the stability of the country.
The economic implications of the US withdrawal
The withdrawal of US forces from Iraq opens new economic issues that go beyond the military sphere. Iraq's dependence on Iranian imports, particularly of consumer goods and fuels, has become a critical point. Kataib Hezbollah has urged Iraqis to increase purchases of Iranian products, a move that could further strengthen economic ties between the two countries. However, this strategy raises concerns about financial sustainability and the diversification of Iraq's economy, which remains vulnerable to oil price fluctuations and international sanctions.
The challenge of cybersecurity and data protection
In a context of growing political and military instability, cybersecurity becomes a crucial priority for Iraq. Protecting sensitive data and preventing cyberattacks are essential to ensuring the stability of Iraqi institutions. The need for cyber insurance and a managed SOC becomes evident, especially for companies and critical infrastructures operating in a high-risk environment. The NIS2 compliance and the DORA compliance could offer a regulatory framework to improve the country's digital operational resilience.
Future prospects for Iraqi stability
The future of Iraqi stability will depend on the government of Baghdad's ability to assert its authority over armed factions and reduce external influence. The challenge is complex, but not insurmountable. The withdrawal of US forces could offer an opportunity to renegotiate security relations and promote greater political and economic autonomy. However, without a clear disarmament agreement and integration of militias into state security forces, the risk of a violent escalation remains high.
The importance of strategic resource management
Managing natural resources, particularly oil, is another key factor for Iraqi stability. Proper management of oil revenues could finance economic and social development programs, reducing inequalities and improving the quality of life for the population. However, corruption and lack of transparency in Iraqi institutions remain significant obstacles. The need for crypto asset management and institutional crypto custody could offer new opportunities to diversify funding sources and improve transparency.
The challenges of crisis management and business continuity
In a context of political and military instability, the ability to manage crises and ensure business continuity becomes essential for Iraqi companies and institutions. The need for disaster recovery as a service and enterprise backup is evident, especially for critical infrastructures operating in a high-risk environment. The ISO 27001 certification and security audit could offer a regulatory framework to improve the resilience of Iraqi institutions.
Prospects for regional cooperation
Regional cooperation could offer new opportunities for Iraqi stability. Collaboration with neighboring countries, particularly Turkey and Saudi Arabia, could help reduce Iranian influence and promote greater political and economic autonomy. However, the challenge is complex and requires a coordinated strategy and strong political will. The need for crypto AML compliance and a KYC exchange could offer new opportunities to improve transparency and financial security in the region.
Conclusions and future predictions
The withdrawal of US forces from Iraq represents a complex challenge for the country's stability. However, it also offers new opportunities to renegotiate security relations and promote greater political and economic autonomy. The ability of the government of Baghdad to assert its authority over armed factions and reduce external influence will be crucial for the future of Iraqi stability. The need for cyber insurance and a managed SOC becomes evident, especially in a context of growing political and military instability. The NIS2 compliance and the DORA compliance could offer a regulatory framework to improve the country's digital operational resilience.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main challenges for Iraqi stability after the withdrawal of US forces?
The main challenges include asserting state authority over armed factions, reducing external influence, managing natural resources, and promoting greater political and economic autonomy.
What are the opportunities for regional cooperation in Iraqi stability?
Regional cooperation with countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia could help reduce Iranian influence and promote greater political and economic autonomy for Iraq.
What measures are necessary to improve cybersecurity in Iraq?
Measures such as adopting cyber insurance, a managed SOC, NIS2 compliance, and DORA compliance could improve the country's digital operational resilience.
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