The U.S. Air Force plans 1,509 fighter jets by 2035

The U.S. Air Force has announced its intention to reach a fleet of 1,509 fighter jets by 2035, according to a force structure report sent to Congress on October 16. Lieutenant General David Tabor, vice chief of staff for programs and plans, outlined the report's details during a meeting with journalists at the Pentagon on October 20.

Quick Answer

  • The Air Force aims for 1,509 fighter jets by 2035
  • F-35s will make up 40% of the fleet, F-22s and F-47s 20%
  • Planning is based on medium-risk scenarios
  • Achieving the goal depends on funding and production capacity
  • Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) are not included in the count

The report, which has not been made public, predicts that F-35s will make up about 40% of the fleet by 2035, compared to the current 30%. The F-22s and their replacement, the F-47s, will represent about 20% of the fleet. The F-15s and F-16s will split the remaining 40% almost equally. The A-10s are not included in the 2035 plans.

Operational Requirements Analysis

The analysis is based on the needs expressed by regional commanders to conduct missions with a medium level of risk. According to military classification, medium risk implies that forces could achieve their objectives but might face strains in prolonged operations. Tabor specified that the analysis was initiated before this year's conflict with Iran and was not influenced by it.

The general warned that the figure of 1,509 fighters could vary based on global events, new needs, and the emergence of new technologies. Achieving the goal will depend on Congress's funding and Lockheed Martin and Boeing's ability to produce the aircraft on schedule. "The industry has assured us they can do it, and we believe them," Tabor stated.

Financial and Contractual Planning

The Air Force has long advocated the need to purchase 72 fighters per year. The 2027 budget request includes 38 F-35s and 24 F-15EX, totaling 62 aircraft. Tabor indicated that purchases could increase over time. The budget allocates $2.34 billion to fund 14 of the 38 F-35s, funds that should come from a reconciliation bill. If such a law does not pass, the Air Force could reallocate funds from other programs or postpone purchases to 2028.

The Air Force is seeking multi-year contracts for the F-35s and F-15EX, a request currently awaiting approval in Congress. Tabor stated that such agreements would provide the industry with greater stability to expand production. He also mentioned that older F-16s will reach the end of their operational life in the mid-2030s, but the decision to purchase new F-16s, provisionally named F-16G, will not be made before the 2028 budget.

The Role of Collaborative Combat Aircraft

The figure of 1,509 fighters does not include Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), drones that will serve as wingmen for manned fighters. The Air Force plans to deploy 500 CCAs by 2032. Tabor specified that the drones are not currently changing the requirements for fighters but could reduce them in future reports.

This strategic planning reflects the complex interaction between operational needs, industrial capabilities, and financial constraints. Technological evolution, particularly the development of CCAs, could further redefine the landscape of the U.S. Air Force in the coming decades.

To delve deeper into the strategic implications of these decisions, see also our analysis on U.S. defense priorities.

Impact on the Aerospace Supply Chain

The U.S. Air Force's planning poses new challenges to the industrial supply chain. Lockheed Martin, the producer of the F-35s, and Boeing, responsible for the F-15EXs, will have to manage a significant increase in production. According to industry analysts, current production capacity may require additional investments to meet the Pentagon's needs. The transition to multi-year contracts represents an attempt to stabilize demand and reduce unit costs through economies of scale.

Geopolitical Considerations and Alliances

The decision to expand the fighter fleet has implications for the United States' military alliances. Countries like Japan and South Korea, which have already purchased F-35s, may renegotiate their orders based on new production capabilities. Additionally, the integration of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) could influence cooperation agreements with NATO, where the sharing of advanced technologies is a sensitive issue.

Technological Challenges and Innovation

The development of CCAs introduces new technological challenges. These drones must be able to operate in sync with manned fighters, requiring significant advancements in artificial intelligence and secure communication. The U.S. Air Force is collaborating with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to accelerate the integration of these technologies. However, cybersecurity remains a critical concern, especially in a context of growing cyber threats.

Implications for Financial Markets

Companies involved in the production of fighter jets could benefit from an increase in stock actions due to government orders. Lockheed Martin and Boeing, in particular, could see an increase in share value in response to new contracts. However, investors will need to carefully monitor risks related to production delays or changes in Congressional funding. The stability of multi-year contracts could mitigate some of these risks, but political uncertainty remains a factor to consider.

Future Perspectives and Alternative Scenarios

The 2035 horizon is still far away, and many factors could alter the current path. The emergence of new technologies, such as hypersonic fighters or laser defense systems, could redefine operational requirements. Additionally, geopolitical dynamics in areas like the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East could require adjustments in the fleet's composition. The U.S. Air Force will need to remain flexible to adapt to these changes while maintaining the ability to respond to current threats.

Considerations for Industry Professionals

For defense and aerospace professionals, the U.S. Air Force's strategic planning offers opportunities for growth and innovation. Companies operating in the fighter jet sector should prepare to scale production and invest in research and development. At the same time, it is crucial to monitor regulatory developments and changes in the Pentagon's priorities to remain competitive.

The Role of Cyber Insurance

With the increase in digitalization and the integration of advanced systems like CCAs, protecting critical infrastructures becomes essential. Companies involved in the production and management of these systems should consider implementing a cyber risk policy to mitigate risks related to cyber attacks. Cyber insurance can provide coverage for financial losses resulting from data breaches or operational disruptions, ensuring greater resilience in a context of growing threats.

An Evolving Future

The U.S. Air Force's planning for a fleet of 1,509 fighter jets by 2035 reflects a complex interaction between operational needs, industrial capabilities, and financial constraints. While the integration of advanced technologies like CCAs promises to redefine the air defense landscape, geopolitical evolution and technological challenges require a flexible and adaptable approach. For industry professionals, this transition represents an opportunity to innovate and grow, but also a challenge to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly evolving market.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main challenges for the aerospace industry?

The main challenges include increasing production capacity, integrating advanced technologies like CCAs, and managing financial risks related to changes in Congressional funding.

How will CCAs influence the U.S. Air Force's strategy?

Collaborative Combat Aircraft could reduce the requirements for manned fighters and improve overall operational capability, but they require significant technological advancements in artificial intelligence and secure communication.

What are the implications for investors?

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