New arrest warrant for Raúl Castro: US pressure on crisis-stricken Cuba

The authorities in Florida have issued a new arrest warrant against former Cuban president Raúl Castro, in relation to the shooting down of two aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization in 1996. This measure follows a federal indictment announced in May, which, however, does not seem to have immediate practical consequences. The move, however, underscores the determination of US authorities to pursue political accountability in Cuba, both for the past and the present.

Quick Response

  • A new arrest warrant has been issued against Raúl Castro for the shooting down of two aircraft in 1996
  • The federal indictment is part of a US campaign of pressure on Cuba
  • The economic and humanitarian crisis in Cuba has worsened in recent years
  • The reforms announced by the regime are considered superficial
  • A complete political transition is seen as the only path to stability

The Cuban crisis: decades of failed management

The situation in Cuba is critical: decades of poor management, corruption, and an economy controlled by the military have led to the collapse of trade and the destruction of traditional industries, particularly tourism and sugar production. The crisis has been exacerbated by the reduction of petroleum imports, a consequence of the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela and US sanctions.

Human impact of the crisis

Official Cuban data show a dramatic increase in infant mortality, more than doubling from 2019 to 2025, with a rate of 9.9 deaths per 1,000 live births. The availability of essential medicines has dropped to 30%, and eight out of ten Cubans have skipped meals due to food shortages or lack of money. According to the United Nations, 3.2 million Cubans struggle to access drinking water.

The US strategy: pressure and direct dialogue

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has intensified direct contacts with the Cuban people, highlighting the failures of the communist government and proposing a new economic model that offers opportunities to the population. This strategy aims to show the possible improvements in living conditions, including health, education, and energy.

Planning for the future: investments and transition

To prepare for post-transition reconstruction, it is necessary to start collaborating now with international financial institutions and potential partners. Preliminary assessments are already quantifying the enormous investments needed to revive the Cuban economy. Ensuring that funding is available at the right time will be crucial.

The regime's resistance and prospects for change

The Cuban regime shows no signs of wanting to give up its political monopoly or initiate structural reforms. The violent repression of protests, such as those in July 2021, has become a priority to prevent further mobilizations. The announced economic reforms are considered deceptive, as the government maintains control over any private activity.

The path to a lasting transition

A complete political transition, which includes dismantling the regime's power structure and establishing a democracy, is seen as the only way to ensure both the US national security objectives and the well-being of the Cuban people. Cuban dissidents, both on the island and in the diaspora, will be crucial in certifying the authenticity of any political transformation.

The role of dissidents and the exile community

Pro-democracy Cuban groups have united under the Freedom Accord, an agreement outlining a plan for a democratic transition. These actors will be fundamental in ensuring the legitimacy of the change process and should be involved in any serious negotiation. The Cuban exile community will likely be a key source of capital to revive the Cuban economy.

Future prospects and immediate challenges

While the situation in Cuba remains critical, international pressures and internal dynamics are creating an environment in which a political transition could become inevitable. The international community and financial institutions must prepare to support this process, ensuring that funds are available when needed. The road to stability and prosperity in Cuba will be long and complex, but coordinated action and strategic planning can make a difference.

Related Insights

For more details on geopolitical dynamics in the region, explore our analysis on Latin America in 2026. To better understand the impact of economic sanctions, see also our guide on international sanctions.

The global economic context and challenges for Cuba

The Cuban crisis is set against an increasingly complex global economic backdrop, characterized by fragile supply chains and volatile financial markets. According to the International Monetary Fund, developing countries are facing unprecedented difficulties, with a 30% increase in import costs since 2023. For Cuba, this means that post-transition reconstruction will require not only capital but also innovative strategies to integrate into the global economy without repeating past mistakes.

The opportunities offered by the MiCA regulation

The recent entry into force of the European Union's MiCA regulation opens new possibilities for Cuba in the financial sector. The MiCA regulation, which establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets, could attract institutional investors interested in exploring institutional crypto custody and crypto AML compliance solutions on the island. However, the lack of adequate technological infrastructure and the need for NIS2 compliance represent significant obstacles.

Cybersecurity as a strategic priority

In a context of increasing digitization, cyber insurance and incident response become crucial elements for Cuba's economic stability. Critical infrastructures, such as those in energy and healthcare, require robust ransomware protection and Data Loss Prevention solutions to prevent cyberattacks. The lack of a managed SOC or MDR service makes the island vulnerable to cyber threats, underscoring the need for immediate investments in NIS2 compliance and DORA regulation.

Implications for investors and businesses

For companies interested in operating in Cuba, the current situation presents both risks and opportunities. The need for ISO 27001 certification and security audits is evident, but the lack of a clear regulatory framework makes long-term planning difficult. Companies will need to carefully evaluate the costs associated with cyber insurance premiums and breach remediation, as well as consider disaster recovery as a service and enterprise backup solutions to ensure business continuity.

The challenge of infrastructure reconstruction

Reconstructing Cuba's infrastructure will require an integrated approach that takes into account both immediate needs and long-term development prospects. The lack of access to identity access management and zero trust architecture further complicates the situation, necessitating international collaboration to develop customized technological solutions. International financial institutions will need to play a key role in providing identity management and enterprise cloud security to support the transition.

The role of emerging technologies

Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, could offer innovative solutions to address Cuba's infrastructure challenges. However, the adoption of these technologies requires a clear regulatory framework and significant investments in cloud security posture and Security Information and Event Management. The lack of local expertise and the need for penetration testing and vulnerability assessment represent further obstacles that will need to be overcome.

Future prospects and immediate challenges

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main challenges for investors interested in Cuba?

Investors must face a series of challenges, including the lack of a clear regulatory framework, the need for ISO 27001 certification, and the absence of adequate technological infrastructure. Long-term planning requires a careful evaluation of the costs associated with cyber insurance premiums and breach remediation.

How can emerging technologies contribute to Cuba's reconstruction?

What is the role of international financial institutions in Cuba's transition?

International financial institutions must provide technical and financial support to ensure the availability of funds at the right time. This includes solutions for identity management and enterprise cloud security to support the transition and reconstruction of critical infrastructures.

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