The Trump Administration and the "Big Deal" with Azerbaijan: Revitalizing Relations Through Prisoner Releases

Washington — The Trump administration's negotiation strategy with [Belarus](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/how-the-trump-administration-can-get-even-more-out-of-its-diplomacy-with-lukashenka/) has led to the release of hundreds of detainees. By exchanging a relaxation of targeted sanctions for the release of political prisoners in Belarus, the White House has helped free more than five hundred people from unjust detention. A similar agreement with Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus could yield significant benefits, with much lower risk.

An Opportunity for a "Big Deal" in Azerbaijan

To pursue this "big deal" in Azerbaijan, the Trump administration should work with Congress to propose ending a ban on arms sales to Baku in exchange for the release of individuals unjustly detained, some with ties to the United States, currently in the country's prisons. This is a rare moment for a bipartisan victory and a relatively low-cost way to improve U.S. relations with a key strategic partner in the energy and transportation sectors, which borders both Iran and Russia. With timely action, Armenia could also be favorable, if the release includes at least some Armenians currently detained in Azerbaijan.

What to Do About Section 907

The Trump administration should engage with Congress to address Baku's top concern on Capitol Hill: the repeal of [Section 907](https://www.congress.gov/bill/102nd-congress/senate-bill/2532/text) of the FREEDOM Support Act, which bans U.S. arms sales to Azerbaijan. Congress originally adopted the measure in 1992 to punish Azerbaijan's treatment of Armenians in Karabakh and its blockade of Armenia. In 2001, the U.S. Senate approved an [amendment](https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/01/text/20020130-6.html) that allowed the White House to waive Section 907 restrictions. Nearly every year since then, both Republican and Democratic presidents have waived Section 907. This renders the text inconsequential for the United States, but it is highly symbolic for the government of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who sees it as an obstacle to closer relations with Washington.

Moreover, relations between Washington, Baku, and Yerevan are evolving. Armenia and Azerbaijan have received unprecedented attention from the United States when Vice President JD Vance became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the countries in February, following the tripartite leaders' summit in Washington, DC in August 2025. In Yerevan, the vice president announced billions of dollars in nuclear energy support, spoke about a major U.S.-funded supercomputing project, and included tacit support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Vance's visit to Baku saw an agreement for the United States to work with Azerbaijan on a series of areas, but no concrete deal.

The Importance of Timing

The timing of any deal is essential, and the coming months present a unique opportunity. The release of Armenian and Azerbaijani political prisoners should be a priority, along with the reopening of transportation links between the two countries. A formal peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, followed by a security treaty, should be the ultimate goal. With timely action and bipartisan commitment, this "big deal" could be achieved by the end of 2025, leading to a significant improvement in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations.

Geopolitical Context and Strategic Interests

Azerbaijan represents a crucial node for energy security and transportation corridors in the South Caucasus. Its geographical position, between Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea, makes it a strategic partner for the United States. The region is traversed by key pipelines, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, which transports Azeri oil to Western markets, reducing Europe's dependence on Russian supplies.

The repeal of Section 907 could strengthen security cooperation, allowing the United States to provide technical assistance and training for the protection of critical infrastructure. This is particularly relevant in light of growing tensions with Iran and instability in Russia's southern regions.

Economic Impact and Commercial Opportunities

An improvement in relations between the United States and Azerbaijan could open new economic opportunities. American companies could participate in infrastructure, energy, and technology projects in the country, benefiting from a growing market. Additionally, the reopening of transportation links between Armenia and Azerbaijan, such as the Zangezur Corridor, could stimulate regional trade and reduce logistics costs.

Azerbaijan has already initiated economic reforms to attract foreign investment, and a political agreement could accelerate this process. U.S. companies could find competitive advantages in sectors such as renewable energy, telecommunications, and the digital industry.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the potential benefits, there are significant challenges to address. The internal political situation in Azerbaijan, with limitations on civil liberties and the press, could raise concerns among U.S. legislators. Additionally, the dynamics between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain delicate, and any agreement should ensure long-term stability in the region.

Russia, which has traditionally held influence in the region, might view with suspicion a strengthening of relations between the United States and Azerbaijan. However, security cooperation could be presented as a way to counter common threats, such as terrorism and drug trafficking.

Future Prospects

If the Trump administration succeeds in negotiating a deal with Azerbaijan, this could set a model for future collaborations in the region. A diplomatic success could also strengthen the United States' position in the South Caucasus, balancing Russian and Turkish influence.

To ensure the sustainability of the agreement, it will be essential to engage all stakeholders, including political leaders, civil society, and the private sector. A holistic approach, combining security, economy, and human rights, could contribute to a more stable and prosperous future for the region.

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