United States and Myanmar: Direct Dialogues with the Military Junta After the Coup
Washington's strategy between diplomatic revival, economic interests, and humanitarian crisis
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Direct dialogues between the United States and Myanmar's military junta after the 2021 coup
- Declared objectives: release of an American entrepreneur and collaboration against online scam centers
- Civil war in Myanmar: 3.7 million displaced and 100,000 deaths in five years
- Military junta controls only 21% of the territory, while resistance groups hold strategic rare earth resources
- Humanitarian crisis worsened by the cut of USAID aid under the Trump administration
The Trump Administration Initiates a Radical Shift in US Policy Toward Myanmar
The Trump administration has initiated a drastic shift in US policy toward Myanmar, marking a clear departure from the measures adopted by former President Joe Biden after the 2021 coup. While Biden had insisted on a return to democracy and imposed sanctions on the military junta, the current administration has begun direct talks with Myanmar's generals, accused of genocide in 2022. This strategic shift began with an implicit recognition of General Min Aung Hlaing by Trump, who sent a letter about tariffs in July 2025, followed by the removal of some of his allies from the US Treasury's sanctions list. The turning point came in mid-September, when Assistant Secretary of State Michael Vance held the first high-level talks with Hlaing in Naypyidaw, the Myanmar capital.
Declared Objectives and Concrete Challenges
The official objectives of this rapprochement are limited: securing the release of Adam Castillo, a detained US entrepreneur, and obtaining the junta's cooperation to dismantle online scam centers operating in Myanmar. Another strategic interest concerns the country's rare earth deposits, currently under China's control. Castillo's release has been obtained, but the other issues present significant obstacles. The junta is part of the problem of scam centers, while rare earth deposits are located in territories controlled by ethnic rebel groups.
A Complex and Fragmented War
The conflict in Myanmar, which began in 2021, has become a multi-front war with politically and geographically fragmented actors. After the repression of anti-coup protests, thousands of activists joined existing ethnic insurgencies. The National Unity Government (NUG), formed by ousted parliamentarians, has unified part of the resistance, but many armed groups operate independently. The junta has lost control of much of the territory but maintains dominance over crucial economic infrastructure such as ports and industrial plants. The rare earth deposits, however, are now under the control of ethnic groups such as the Wa, Karen, and Shan.
The Impact of Sanctions and International Support
The Biden administration responded to the coup with targeted sanctions and humanitarian support to pro-democracy groups, although it never formally recognized the NUG. Increased funding allowed for expanded healthcare coverage and improved access to drinking water, but the situation has drastically worsened with the arrival of the Trump administration. The suppression of USAID has had a devastating impact on medical supplies and basic healthcare services. According to Paung, director of the Luke Foundation, at least two hospitals will have to close by the end of the year due to lack of resources.
The Humanitarian Crisis and the Challenge of Sovereignty
Five years of conflict have caused over 3.7 million internally displaced people and more than 100,000 deaths, according to the United Nations and ACLED monitoring. The junta maintains formal sovereignty but controls only 21% of the national territory. In January 2026, Min Aung Hlaing organized elections in the areas under his control and proclaimed himself president of a nominally civilian government. This move was ignored by the United States, which maintained a diplomatic silence that alarmed the opposition. Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of the NUG, expressed concern that the junta might use talks with Washington to strengthen its political legitimacy.
Rare Earths: A Geopolitical Challenge
The junta has no control over rare earth deposits, currently under the dominion of ethnic rebel groups. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of one of the world's largest concentrations of heavy rare earths, taxing trade with China to fund its struggle. In areas controlled by the United Wa State Army, Chinese companies are extracting rare earths without the consent of Naypyidaw. The United States is considering various options, including direct negotiations with the KIA or partnerships with India for the development of these resources, but each path bypasses the united opposition, narrowing its maneuvering margin.
The Strategic Implications for Washington
For Napas Thein, a researcher at the University of Toronto, engagement with the junta could compromise the credibility of the United States on democracy and human rights. The Trump administration seems ready to make a pragmatic bet, despite political risks and operational challenges. David Gum Awng, deputy foreign minister of the NUG, stated that his government maintains contacts with Washington, while recognizing the pragmatic nature of the new world order.
Quick Response
- The Trump administration has initiated direct talks with Myanmar's military junta, marking a policy shift from the Biden era
- Declared objectives include the release of a US entrepreneur and cooperation to dismantle online scam centers
- The conflict in Myanmar is highly fragmented, with the junta controlling only 21% of the national territory
- Rare earths, a strategic resource, are under the control of ethnic rebel groups, not the junta
- The democratic opposition expresses concern about the possible strengthening of the junta's political legitimacy through talks with Washington
The Challenge of Online Scam Centers
Online scam centers represent a complex problem for the United States. These centers, located near the Thai border, are run by criminal syndicates and protected by militias allied with the junta, such as the Border Guard Forces. These groups receive kickbacks from scam center operators, creating a system of interlocking interests that makes it difficult for the junta to ensure the cessation of these activities. Zin Mar Aung emphasized that the regime "cannot fully guarantee" the end of these practices due to these ties.
Rare Earths: A Strategic Opportunity
Rare earths represent a strategic opportunity for the United States, but also a complex challenge. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of one of the world's largest deposits of heavy rare earths, taxing trade with China to fund its struggle. In areas controlled by the United Wa State Army, Chinese companies are extracting rare earths without the consent of Naypyidaw. The United States is evaluating various options, including direct negotiations with the KIA or partnerships with India for the development of these resources.
The Implications for the Democratic Opposition
The democratic opposition in Myanmar is concerned about the implications of the rapprochement between the United States and the military junta. Zin Mar Aung expressed fears that the junta might use these talks to strengthen its political legitimacy. The NUG maintains contacts with Washington but recognizes the pragmatic nature of the new world order. David Gum Awng stated that his government is adopting a cautious approach, while understanding current geopolitical realities.
The Humanitarian Challenge
The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar continues to worsen. According to the United Nations, over 3.7 million people are internally displaced and more than 100,000 have died due to the conflict. The suppression of USAID by the Trump administration has had a devastating impact on medical supplies and basic healthcare services. Paung, director of the Luke Foundation, stated that at least two hospitals will have to close by the end of the year due to lack of resources.
Future Prospects
The future prospects for Myanmar are uncertain. The Trump administration seems ready to make a pragmatic bet, despite political risks and operational challenges. The democratic opposition is concerned about the implications of the rapprochement between the United States and the military junta but continues to maintain contacts with Washington. The humanitarian situation remains critical, with an urgent need for medical supplies and basic healthcare services.
The Strategic Role of Rare Earths in Asian Geopolitics
Rare earths represent a crucial element in the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. Myanmar possesses some of the world's largest reserves of heavy rare earths, essential for the production of advanced technologies such as smartphones, electric vehicles, and defense systems. China currently controls about 80% of the global market for these resources, a dominant position that Washington seeks to counter. The Myanmar military junta, although not having direct control of these deposits, could facilitate access to Beijing, further strengthening its economic and strategic influence in the region.
The Impact on US-China Bilateral Relations
The rapprochement between the United States and the Myanmar military junta could have significant repercussions on bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing. China has historically supported the Naypyidaw regime, providing arms and political support. Any agreement between the United States and the junta could be seen by China as an attempt to undermine its influence in the region. This scenario could lead to an escalation of tensions, with possible repercussions on other geopolitical fronts, such as the South China Sea or Taiwan.
The Implications for Western Companies
Western companies operating in Myanmar must face an increasingly complex and risky context. The lifting of sanctions on some junta allies could facilitate investments, but the situation of political instability and territorial fragmentation makes it difficult to ensure the security of operations. Additionally, the presence of online scam centers and the lack of reliable infrastructure represent further obstacles for foreign companies. Companies will need to carefully assess the risks and adopt measures of cyber insurance and compliance NIS2 to protect their interests.
The Challenges for International Diplomacy
The international community faces a complex diplomatic challenge. On the one hand, there is the need to ensure regional stability and promote the resolution of the conflict in Myanmar. On the other hand, there are pressures to respect democratic principles and human rights. The UN and other international organizations will need to carefully navigate between these conflicting priorities, seeking to find a balance between pragmatism and principles. The suppression of USAID has made the need for a coordinated response to address the humanitarian crisis even more urgent.
The Prospects for Democratic Resistance
The democratic resistance in Myanmar faces an increasingly difficult situation. The reduction of international support and the increase of military pressures make the struggle for democracy even more arduous. However, opposition groups continue to receive support from some democratic nations and non-governmental organizations. The ability of the resistance to maintain cohesion and adapt to new political realities will be crucial for its future. The formation of strategic alliances and the search for new sources of funding will be key elements for the survival and success of the democratic cause.
The Implications for Regional Security
The situation in Myanmar has significant implications for regional security. The fragmentation of the conflict and the presence of numerous armed actors make the region unstable and unpredictable. Neighboring countries, such as Thailand, India, and China, must face the threat of spillover and the risk of increased refugee flows. Border security and the management of cross-border conflicts become crucial priorities for these countries. The international community will need to collaborate to ensure regional stability and prevent the escalation of the conflict.
The Economic Prospects for Myanmar
The economic prospects for Myanmar remain uncertain. The war has devastated the country's economy, with a particularly severe impact on sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. Reconstruction and economic recovery will require significant investments and a stable political environment. Foreign companies may be reluctant to invest in a context of high instability, making economic recovery even more difficult. The international community will need to play a key role in supporting reconstruction and promoting the economic development of the country.
The Implications for US Domestic Politics
The decision to rapprochement with the Myanmar military junta could have repercussions on US domestic politics. Critics of the Trump administration may accuse the government of compromising democratic principles and human rights for strategic interests. This could fuel political debates and influence future elections. On the other hand, supporters of pragmatic foreign policy may defend the need to prioritize national interests and economic security. The Myanmar issue could become a topic of political debate, influencing the positions of various parties and candidates.
The Challenges for the International Community
The international community faces a series of complex challenges in managing the Myanmar crisis. The need to ensure regional stability, promote conflict resolution, and respect democratic principles requires a coordinated and strategic approach. International organizations will need to collaborate with regional countries and conflicting parties to find lasting solutions. Managing the humanitarian crisis and supporting economic reconstruction will be key elements for the success of any international initiative. The international community will need to demonstrate unity and determination to address these challenges.
The Prospects for Multilateral Diplomacy
The Myanmar crisis represents a significant challenge for multilateral diplomacy. The UN and other international organizations will need to find ways to engage all conflicting parties and promote dialogue. The search for a negotiated political solution will require the active participation of all regional and international actors. Multilateral diplomacy will need to demonstrate its ability to address complex crises and promote peace and stability. The international community will need to work together to find innovative and sustainable solutions for the Myanmar crisis.
The Implications for Cybersecurity
The presence of online scam centers in Myanmar represents a significant threat to global cybersecurity. These centers are involved in criminal activities such as phishing, financial fraud, and ransomware attacks. Companies and governments must adopt measures of cyber insurance and breach remediation to protect their systems and data. International collaboration will be crucial to dismantle these centers and prevent further attacks. Cybersecurity will need to be a priority for the international community in managing the Myanmar crisis.
The Prospects for Post-Conflict Reconstruction
Post-conflict reconstruction in Myanmar will require a holistic and coordinated approach. Economic recovery and infrastructure reconstruction must be accompanied by political and social reforms to ensure lasting peace. International organizations and donor countries will need to collaborate to provide technical and financial support. Reconstruction must be inclusive and respect human rights to ensure long-term stability. The international community will need to demonstrate commitment and determination to support post-conflict reconstruction in Myanmar.
The Implications for Energy Security
Myanmar is an important producer of natural gas, with significant reserves off its coasts. The situation of political instability and ongoing conflict pose a threat to regional energy security. Neighboring countries and energy companies will need to address the risks associated with operations in a context of high instability. The security of energy infrastructure and the stability of supplies will be crucial priorities for the region. The international community will need to collaborate to ensure energy security and prevent regional crises.
The Prospects for Regional Cooperation
The Myanmar crisis requires a coordinated and collaborative response from regional countries. Regional cooperation will be crucial to ensure stability, promote conflict resolution, and address common challenges. ASEAN countries and other regional actors will need to work together to find lasting solutions. Regional cooperation must be based on principles of solidarity and mutual respect. The international community will need to support regional cooperation efforts to address the Myanmar crisis.
The Implications for Food Security
The conflict in Myanmar has a significant impact on the food security of the region. The devastation of agricultural infrastructure and the displacement of populations make it difficult to ensure access to food. The international community will need to adopt measures to address the food crisis and support agricultural recovery. Food security will need to be a priority for the international community in managing the Myanmar crisis. Collaboration between international organizations, governments, and local communities will be crucial to ensure food security and prevent humanitarian crises.
The Prospects for Peace and Reconciliation
The search for peace and reconciliation in Myanmar will require an inclusive and participatory approach. The involvement of all conflicting parties and local communities will be crucial to ensure a lasting solution. International organizations and donor countries will need to support peace and reconciliation processes. Peace and reconciliation must be based on principles of justice, equality, and respect for human rights. The international community will need to demonstrate commitment and determination to support peace and reconciliation in Myanmar.
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