Geopolitics · VIDEO
United States and Myanmar: Direct Dialogues with the Military Junta After the Coup
The Trump administration initiates direct talks with Myanmar's military junta, reversing years of isolation. Declared objectives: the release of an American entrepreneur and collaboration against online scam centers. Meanwhile, the civil war enters its fifth year with 3.7 million displaced and 100,000 dead. The junta controls only 21% of the territory, while resistance groups hold the resources of rare earths, crucial for geopolitical competition.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Direct dialogues between the United States and Myanmar's military junta after the 2021 coup
- Declared objectives: release of an American entrepreneur and collaboration against online scam centers
- Civil war in Myanmar: 3.7 million displaced and 100,000 deaths in five years
- Military junta controls only 21% of the territory, while resistance groups hold strategic rare earth resources
- Humanitarian crisis worsened by the cut of USAID aid under the Trump administration
Transcript
The Trump administration has initiated a significant shift in US policy towards Myanmar, engaging directly with the military junta, a departure from former President Joe Biden's approach of advocating for democracy and imposing sanctions. This change began with President Trump sending a letter to General Min Aung Hlaing in July 2025 and removing some of his allies from the US Treasury's sanctions list. In mid-September, Assistant Secretary of State Michael Vance held high-level talks with Hlaing in Naypyidaw.
The stated objectives of this engagement include securing the release of detained US entrepreneur Adam Castillo, which has been achieved, and obtaining junta cooperation to dismantle online scam centers operating in Myanmar. However, these centers are protected by militias allied with the junta, making this a complex issue. Additionally, the US aims to gain access to Myanmar's rare earth deposits, currently controlled by ethnic rebel groups, to counter China's influence.
The conflict in Myanmar, which began in 2021, has become a multi-front war with politically and geographically fragmented actors. The junta controls only 21% of the national territory but maintains dominance over crucial economic infrastructure. The rare earth deposits are located in territories controlled by ethnic groups such as the Wa, Karen, and Shan.
The Biden administration's targeted sanctions and humanitarian support to pro-democracy groups have been largely suppressed under the Trump administration, leading to a worsening humanitarian crisis. Over 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and more than 100,000 deaths have been reported.
The democratic opposition expresses concern that talks with Washington may strengthen the junta's political legitimacy. The US is considering various options for accessing rare earth deposits, but each path bypasses the united opposition, narrowing its maneuvering margin. The Trump administration's engagement with the junta could compromise the US's credibility on democracy and human rights, but it appears ready to make a pragmatic bet despite political risks and operational challenges.
