Diplomacy in the Middle East: E4+R4 seeks to prevent an escalation with Iran

Trump and the shadow of a new conflict with Iran

The statement by Donald Trump that "anything is possible" regarding a potential attack against Iran after the midterm elections has triggered intense diplomatic activity. Two parallel initiatives, one European and one regional, are attempting to prevent or limit the consequences of a potential conflict. If successful, they could form the basis of a new "coalition of the willing" to stabilize the Middle East without U.S. leadership.

Quick Response

The Istanbul meeting and the new diplomatic dynamic

On October 23 in Istanbul, a meeting was held between the foreign ministers of E4 and R4. Among the declared objectives: preserving the two-state solution for Israel-Palestine, ending the war between the United States and Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and defending Saudi Arabia from attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Italy's participation in the E3 group was welcomed positively, strengthening European diplomatic weight and compensating for the post-Brexit weakness of the United Kingdom and Germany's loss of regional influence.

The regional alliance and collective defense

The R4 group has shown a remarkable evolution since its establishment earlier in the year. All members except Egypt have signed the Mecca Defense Alliance, a military pact recently activated in response to Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia. This signals a growing willingness of regional powers to take responsibility for their own security.

The Tehran diplomatic track

Three days after the Istanbul meeting, the security chiefs of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian leaders. This attempt to include Iran in a serious diplomatic process gave Tehran an image advantage just as the Trump administration is seeking to impose a complete blockade on the country.

Iranian threats and global implications

Tehran has made it clear that its response to new U.S. or Israeli attacks would be far more devastating than what the Middle East has seen in the last eight months. The Houthi attacks on Saudi critical infrastructure and maritime traffic in the Red Sea demonstrate the extent of Iranian influence. A joint disruption of the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits would have serious global economic consequences.

Towards a new security architecture

The absence of the United States from both diplomatic meetings highlights a significant change. European and regional powers are seeking to work around an unpredictable Washington rather than with it. This new reality underscores the need for greater diplomatic efforts for regional security.

The priority of preventing war

The immediate goal of both diplomatic tracks is to prevent a return to high-intensity war. The combined capacity of E4 and R4 could add new strength to diplomacy, although it remains to be seen whether they can influence both Trump and Tehran to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Opportunities for deeper cooperation

Regional powers see advantages in closer cooperation with Europe, which can offer a more reliable partnership compared to Russia, China, and the United States. This cooperation could include containing and moderating the behavior of Israel and Iran, as well as promoting a stronger agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

The challenge of Iran's missile program

Both E4 and R4 consider Iran's missile and drone program a direct threat. However, its demonstrated effectiveness over the past year makes it unlikely that Tehran will accept significant downsizing. European and regional powers could instead intensify efforts to slow Iranian progress by disrupting supply chains from China and Russia.

Towards a new regional order

The E4+R4 format creates opportunities to lay the groundwork for a broader security architecture for the Middle East. In the long term, it could even include Iran and Israel, merging the Tehran track and the Abraham Accords into a single process. The European experience with security mechanisms could prove useful for de-escalating tensions and building shared security and prosperity.

The uncertainty of the future

A return to full-scale war between the United States and Iran could be inevitable, given Trump's propensity for all-or-nothing politics and his apparent desire to leave a legacy of hard power. However, even if the efforts of E4+R4 fail, they indicate the emergence of a new regional order led by middle powers that look to Europe, rather than the United States, to strengthen their diplomatic capabilities.

To delve deeper into the strategic implications of these developments, explore our analysis on the new Middle Eastern order. To better understand regional dynamics, also see our analysis on the evolution of the Abraham Accords.